It has certainly been a remarkable year thus far for both shipowners and shipyards. But amid all the market euphoria there has arrived - as so often - a brand new element "the Oil Crisis Mark IV'. This crisis is rather different from previous ones in that it is occasioned by a perceived world shortage of oil itself. and inability of the OPEC producers to increase production, the situation not being helped by the Middle East/terrorism crisis and near mayhem in Russian oil fields. Concurrently China's bounding economy has brought about a demand for 6.6bn barrels per day and India's expansion a demand for 2bn barrels per day. It is hard to forecast where all this is taking us and what effect it will have on consumer confidence which at this date is exemplified by a record 900,000 teu, container traffic Asia-US in May. Shipyards are fully booked, many unable to take fresh orders before 2007. 500 Containerships were ordered in 2003 and so far in 2004 a further 250.

I thought I had seen most phenomena in shipping's wondrous cycles but this year is virtually unique in terms of rates and the newstyle dangers that we now face.

I asked an old friend Professor Tim Congdon CBE - one of the economic "Wise Men" advisers to Government - to speak at one of our recent Buffet Lunches. At first he mildly protested, saying that he professed little or no knowledge of shipping. To that I replied by saying it was precisely for that reason that I wanted him to speak. The shipping market is a reflection of the world markets in commodities of all sorts. Incidentally as reported elsewhere he was remarkably optimistic of the short to medium term... though prudently hedging his bets by saying that political factors/terrorism/failure to solve the WTO dilemmas regarding rich and developing nations etc could jolt any firm prediction.

I must close by a serious appeal to our members. A new approach to the identity of IMIF has resulted in our addressing a diverse collection of the factors affecting the maritime industries. We are unique in both our membership and our eclectic areas of interest... But we are struggling to survive. Our two staff members are part time though their timings are staggered to ensure daily coverage. Our total income is under £70,000 per annum. How would any of your organisations survive on this? I do not want to increase the annual fee, but our income has been bit by, for instance, the merging of some of our loyal bank members which in each case means the loss of one subscription.

Recruiting new members is the obvious solution... but any other ideas would be gratefully accepted by me.

J G Davis CBE