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At this troubled time it
is simply not possible to make any credible forecast for 2003. As I
write the Iraqi "to fight or not to fight" question has not
been answered though the probability of war. looks inevitable.
The uncertainty of all
this has projected itself into all areas and resulted in a nervous
collapse in all the World's Stock Markets. Admittedly certain of the
Shipping sectors, particularly. tankers, are enjoying a huge temporary
surge as a result of nations topping up their Oil reserves alongside the
knee jerk reaction of the EU Commission and its summary rejection of
crude carrying single hulled ships. Dry Bulk is also enjoying better
rates. For how long? A former shipping Banker recently said to me
"But Jim Shipping is in a Boom!" I have heard this from him
before and witnessed the démarche.
In IMIF we have tried to
ventilate an eclectic number of matters of moment in our Buffet lunches
and these are summarised elsewhere in this Newsletter.
The Dinner was its usual
self and hopefully enjoyed by all or nearly all! (See press
cutting)
The topics that most concern our
Industries seem to have centred around
| 1. |
Ports of
Refuge
Recent events particularly "Prestige" and
"Castor" but also the very different asylum seekers
problem of "Tampa" in 2001 have resulted in some nations
backing away from some of the most essential characteristics of
the comity of the sea.
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| 2. |
Europe
A series of unilateral decisions being forced through in Brussels
by the new Transport Commissioner. Is the commission simply adding
another level of control and undermining IMO thereby?
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| 3. |
The dilemma
of the EU Shipbuilders Association who
see a period ahead when there will be virtually no new orders and
the Industry may die. The fact that 6 European Commissions are
enthusiastically embracing the issue is a potentially frightening
one. Will there be an initiative to subsidise or adopt other
protective measures in order to encourage possibly dangerous
overtonnaging by European yards? What else can they or will they
try to do?
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| 4. |
Scrapping
is continuing at a steady rate and
there are, happily, some tangible signs of progress in meeting the
demands of the ecologists. Nevetheless there is great concern at,
for instance, Alang over the threat to this industry there. Recent
quotes following a "TradeWinds" investigation are:
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"We want our
scrapping facilities to be modem and worker and enviromnent-friendly.
We also want our facilities to be as advanced as organisations
like Greenpeace expect them to be. But our economic means are
limited and increasingly our profit margins are not what they used
to be. We would like Alang to be a model ship-scrapping complex
but we do not have resources to do that on our own. The task is
too big and demanding." Chetan M. Tamboli, Chairman Rushil
Industries, Alang
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"We directly
and indirectly employ over a million men and women. Over 40,000
work at Alang while others are employed in downsteam sectors such
as steel re-rolling mills". Pravin Nagarsheth, Shipbreaker,
Alang
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"If the
international community is so concerned about the poor conditions
at shipbreaking complexes on the subcontinent, they should come
forward and pool the millions of dollars required to upgrade the
facilities and introduce some kind of subsidy scheme for scrappers
and workers. Otherwise they should leave the scrappers alone and
let them manage their affairs the way they can". S. Sinh,
Bombay-based consultant, steel and steel-scrap industry.
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It is perhaps high
time that the views of the Scrappers/Recyclers were taken into
account!
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| 5. |
Terrorism
/Security
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These are just a few of
the broad problems facing us. One could add a number more not least the
disgraceful imprisonment on Draconian bail of the unfortunate Captain
Mangouras of "Prestige". We are tangentially addressing this
one with a talk by Julian Parker of the Nautical Institute in April.
IMIF will continue to
debate these and other issues and put pressure on when considered
appropriate.
I should end by once
again thanking our loyal members for their support, not least those who
host our regular Buffet lunches. Our finances are in their customary
delicate state but we survive and Ian Bouskill and Louise are a great
Team.
J. G. Davis CBE
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