At this troubled time it is simply not possible to make any credible forecast for 2003. As I write the Iraqi "to fight or not to fight" question has not been answered though the probability of war. looks inevitable.

The uncertainty of all this has projected itself into all areas and resulted in a nervous collapse in all the World's Stock Markets. Admittedly certain of the Shipping sectors, particularly. tankers, are enjoying a huge temporary surge as a result of nations topping up their Oil reserves alongside the knee jerk reaction of the EU Commission and its summary rejection of crude carrying single hulled ships. Dry Bulk is also enjoying better rates. For how long? A former shipping Banker recently said to me "But Jim Shipping is in a Boom!" I have heard this from him before and witnessed the démarche.

In IMIF we have tried to ventilate an eclectic number of matters of moment in our Buffet lunches and these are summarised elsewhere in this Newsletter.

The Dinner was its usual self and hopefully enjoyed by all or nearly all! (See press cutting)

The topics that most concern our Industries seem to have centred around

1.

Ports of Refuge
Recent events particularly "Prestige" and "Castor" but also the very different asylum seekers problem of "Tampa" in 2001 have resulted in some nations backing away from some of the most essential characteristics of the comity of the sea.

2.

Europe
A series of unilateral decisions being forced through in Brussels by the new Transport Commissioner. Is the commission simply adding another level of control and undermining IMO thereby?

3.

The dilemma of the EU Shipbuilders Association who see a period ahead when there will be virtually no new orders and the Industry may die. The fact that 6 European Commissions are enthusiastically embracing the issue is a potentially frightening one. Will there be an initiative to subsidise or adopt other protective measures in order to encourage possibly dangerous overtonnaging by European yards? What else can they or will they try to do?

4.

Scrapping is continuing at a steady rate and there are, happily, some tangible signs of progress in meeting the demands of the ecologists. Nevetheless there is great concern at, for instance, Alang over the threat to this industry there. Recent quotes following a "TradeWinds" investigation are:

 
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"We want our scrapping facilities to be modem and worker and enviromnent-friendly. We also want our facilities to be as advanced as organisations like Greenpeace expect them to be. But our economic means are limited and increasingly our profit margins are not what they used to be. We would like Alang to be a model ship-scrapping complex but we do not have resources to do that on our own. The task is too big and demanding." Chetan M. Tamboli, Chairman Rushil Industries, Alang

 
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"We directly and indirectly employ over a million men and women. Over 40,000 work at Alang while others are employed in downsteam sectors such as steel re-rolling mills". Pravin Nagarsheth, Shipbreaker, Alang

 
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"If the international community is so concerned about the poor conditions at shipbreaking complexes on the subcontinent, they should come forward and pool the millions of dollars required to upgrade the facilities and introduce some kind of subsidy scheme for scrappers and workers. Otherwise they should leave the scrappers alone and let them manage their affairs the way they can". S. Sinh, Bombay-based consultant, steel and steel-scrap industry.

 

It is perhaps high time that the views of the Scrappers/Recyclers were taken into account!

5.

Terrorism /Security

?

These are just a few of the broad problems facing us. One could add a number more not least the disgraceful imprisonment on Draconian bail of the unfortunate Captain Mangouras of "Prestige". We are tangentially addressing this one with a talk by Julian Parker of the Nautical Institute in April.

IMIF will continue to debate these and other issues and put pressure on when considered appropriate.

I should end by once again thanking our loyal members for their support, not least those who host our regular Buffet lunches. Our finances are in their customary delicate state but we survive and Ian Bouskill and Louise are a great Team.


J. G. Davis CBE